What a week it has been for the UFC. Immediately after UFC on Fox 8 in Seattle, they embarked on a continent hopping media tour with a plethora of champions and No. 1 contenders in toe, which culminates this Saturday in HSBC Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil with a second title fight in seven days.
With the withdrawals of Anthony Pettis, Josh Koscheck, Robert Drysdale, Phil Harris and Clint Hester, throughout the summer, it felt as though a mysterious injury hex had been put on UFC 163, but the show must go on. And so it will, even if it’s not as exciting as its original incarnation.
Jose Aldo v Jung Chan-Sung
There was somewhat of a furore when the UFC decided to replace Anthony Pettis with the Korean Zombie, as supposed to Ricardo Lamas or even Cub Swanson, but, then again, many felt Pettis hadn’t warranted a title fight to begin with. The Korean Zombie has said he is willing to lay down his life to usurp Jose Aldo, a bit dramatic maybe, but this fight could well be life changing, as supposed to ending. If victorious, he will not only be the first Korean to wear UFC gold, but the first Asian. To pull this off, Chang-Sung must prevail where his 15 predecessors have failed, and somehow, get the better of arguably the most naturally-gifted fighter the sport has ever seen.
In the heat of selling “Wolf Tickets” Dana White and Joe Rogan tend to throw around superlatives with reckless abandon, but in the case of Aldo no hyperbole is required. Outside of a questionable gas tank that tends to start running dry in the championship rounds, the champion is almost without flaw. He is as dangerous a counter-striker as he is on the front foot; possesses the power of a welterweight; is equally deadly with all four limbs and, is near impossible to take down-he has stuffed all but five of the 66 attempts to do so in his UFC career. If the Korean Zombie can last until the fourth round and unlike Mark Hominick and Frankie Edgar, not have an insurmountable point deficit to make up or be next to crippled from leg kicks, an unlikely upset is possible.
In all reality, Aldo must fatigue for Chan-Sung to win. If he does, the Korean Zombie must finish him, which is most-likely to happen on the ground. The challenger is a powerful but feral striker, yet his submission game is on point. Blueprints like this have been drafted before to end Aldo’s reign and not one has been sufficient, this trend seems set to continue.
My Prediction: Aldo by KO/TKO in Round Two.
Lyoto Machida v Phil Davis
Like last week’s co-main event this one, on paper at least, is the most intriguing fight on the main card, but as we learned in Seattle, things don’t always pan out that way. Interestingly, this will be only the third time Lyoto Machida has fought professionally in Brazil; the elation of this homecoming may be tempered with the knowledge that by losing this fight, in which he is heavily favoured, he has far more at stake than his opponent.
If Machida wins, he will surely be next in line for a shot at the winner of Jones v Gustaffson, but if he loses, the prospect of meaningless rematches or fights with vastly inferior opponents for less money looms. For Davis, a victory over a former champion, who is the second-ranked fighter in the division, should catapult him into title contention. The path to achieving this is abundantly clear, he has to utilise his world-class wrestling and unorthodox ground game. If Davis avoids the mistakes made by Ryan Bader- which were following Machida around the cage, then losing patience and trying to rush him-plays to his strengths and makes it a grappling match, he might just do it.
From the off, the former Penn State standout cannot allow Machida the freedom of the cage, because he does not have the nous to stifle the Dragon’s movements or for that matter, his in-and-out barrage of strikes. The key for Davis is to check his ego at the cage door and remember what got him to this point, any inclinations of proving to world how much of an improved striker he is, would be advisable to ignore. Hard to call, this one.
My Prediction: Machida by TKO in Round Three.
Thales Leites v Tom Watson
Thales Leites returns to the octagon for the first time in four years and takes on England’s Tom Watson-if ever there was a classic grappler versus striker scenario. Leites, a Rio native, has won six of his seven fights since leaving UFC, is one of the most accomplished grapplers in the middleweight division, and is one of only three men to go the distance with Anderson Silva during his reign-albeit at the Spider’s discretion. Watson is a solid boxer, but short on fights at this level, not really much to think about here.
My Prediction: Leites by submission in Round Two.
Cezar Ferreira v Thiago Santos
In the other middleweight bout on the main card, Brazilian strikers Cezar Ferreira and Thiago Santos are set to bang it out in what is easily the biggest fight of both their nascent UFC careers. Young, hungry Brazilians tend not to hold back-should be fun.
My Prediction: KO/TKO is all that looks certain at this point.
John Lineker v Jose Maria
In the flyweight division, John Lineker puts his two-fight win streak on the line against promotional debutant Jose Maria. Should Lineker manage three wins in a row at 125lbs, a shot a DJ’s belt is not unthinkable. Maria has an impressive record, but it’s difficult to ascertain at what level he amassed it.
My Prediction: Lineker by unanimous decision.
Coverage starts on BT Sports at 3 am on Sunday morning.
By Tom Rooney – @oldmanrooney
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