In terms of live events, the beginning of 2014 has been decidedly muted for the UFC, though the promotion’s fourth episode of the calendar year at the Prudential Centre in Newark, New Jersey, promises to buck the trend.
On Saturday night, in what feels like the perfect precursor to the Super Bowl, there are two titles on the line, a potential loser-leaves-town showdown between two of the most storied heavyweights in history and, what certainly appears to be, an elimination bout for the flyweight division’s No.1 contender spot.
Renan Barao v. Urijah Faber
When the UFC were looking for someone to step up and fight Renan Barao on three weeks’ notice after the perennially injured Dominck Cruz was forced out of their unification bout, there was only one realistic candidate; the California Kid.
Faber was one of MMA’s standout performers in 2013, winning all four of his fights, finishing three via submission, in what was undoubtedly the greatest year of his decade long career.
Now, at 34, he gets his third shot at UFC gold and, almost certainly, his last.
With Cruz vacating his title, Barao is now officially the king of the bantamweight division, so unlike their fight 19 months ago, which the Brazilian won by unanimous decision, there is nothing ceremonial about the belt on the line this time round.
At UFC 149, Barao prevailed in what was an exclusively stand-up encounter, by landing narrowly more significant strikes than Faber. The lack of grappling was due to the champion stuffing all 12 attempts to take him down, and he in turn picked Faber apart, predominately on the outside.
Since Duane Ludwig’s arrival at Team Alpha Male, the challenger, like all his stable mates, is a far superior striker, particularly in terms of movement and hand combinations, with his submission game as lethal as ever.
Yet, the fact remains, Barao is still considerably more versatile and dynamic on the feet. Factoring that with his speed advantage, takedown defence and exceptional BJJ, it appears as though it will be case of different night, same outcome.
My Prediction: Barao by Unanimous Decision.
José Aldo v. Ricardo Lamas
Ricardo Lamas has waited a long time for the opportunity to face the greatest featherweight in history, perhaps too long. Over the last 12 months he has twice been overlooked for title fights; another victim of the UFC’s sometimes mystifying process of choosing No.1 contenders.
Yet, as Frankie Edgar and Chang Sung Jung have tried and failed to dethrone Aldo, the Chicago native, unlike many of his peers in similar situations, has chosen to take the high road, not once griping about his predicament and remained patient. For this, he deserves the upmost credit.
Since joining from the WEC, Lamas has won all four of his bouts in the Octagon, three inside the distance, most notably a submission of Cub Swanson and a TKO of Erik Koch.
Thus, there is no question that he has earned this opportunity, the question is, can he capitalise on it? The short answer is, probably not.
Although Lamas is an accomplished wrestler, a newly promoted BJJ black belt and ferocious striker, men with equally impressive resumes have all come up short against Junior.
Aside from a questionable gas-tank-which is yet to cost him a fight at the highest level-Aldo is without flaw. He is the perfect hybrid of skill, power, athleticism and technique.
Many have proffered that if Lamas is to succeed, he needs to weather the early storm and take him into the championship rounds. This theory holds little water; the damage the champion inflicts in the first 15 minutes, generally renders late comebacks, ala Hominick and Edgar, as futile.
Lamas must finish Aldo, pure and simple- the last person to do so was Luciano Azevedo, almost nine years ago, when he was still a teenager. Thus, like his Nova Uniao teammate, Aldo leaves with the strap around his waist.
My Prediction: Aldo by Unanimous Decision.
Frank Mir v. Alistair Overeem
If ever there were two guys in need of a win. At one time, Mir and Overeem were considered the elite at 265lbs, but now, neither have had their hand raised since December 2011 and, being in their mid-thirties, are on the precipice of obscurity.
Of all the heralded fighters who made their name in other organisations, before joining the UFC, Overeem ranks among the most disappointing, right up there with Shields and Lombard.
Aside from his demolition of Brock Lesnar, the Dutchman’s time with the promotion has been that of car crash television; failed drug tests, assault charges and having his ass handed to him in his last two fights. Furthermore, he has never come across as anything other than an arrogant blow-hard.
Mir, on the other hand, who until this point has never suffered back-to-back losses in his long career, just doesn’t seem to have it anymore.
This one is made for Overeem. For all his qualities, Mir does not have the capacity to ship the punishment Big Foot and Travis Browne did, before taking advantage of Overeem’s inevitable dump.
Moreover, having taken his camp to Thailand, the former-K1 champion has reportedly abandoned extensive weight-training in favour of more cardio-based regime.
Mir’s greatest strength, BJJ, may be neutralised as he tends to do his best work when his opponent has initiated a ground exchange. Frankly, the American is not an explosive enough wrestler to take down the ‘Reem, which should prove pivotal.
My Prediction: Overeem by KO/TKO in Round 1.
John Lineker v. Ali Bagautinov
Had John Lineker not missed weight in three of his five UFC fights, he surely would have been granted a shot at Mighty Mouse by now, but he did. Presumably, it is his undoubted talents, which have prevented the brass from pink-slipping him for these transgressions.
In Ali Bagautinov, he faces another pretender, who has impressed every time he has graced the Octagon. The Russian is a decorated Sambo practitioner and Greco-Roman wrestler in his homeland, with considerable power in his hands.
Lineker, as his CV suggests, hits like a Mac-truck, and is more than competent in all facets of the game, so this one has fight night bonuses written all over it.
Assuming Lineker has refrained from buffet exploration, ensuring the bout’s integrity, whoever wins here should be next in line for a shot at the title. The fact that he is always in shape and has fantastic grappling, Bagautinov just might sneak it.
My Prediction: Bagautinov by submission in Round 2.
Jamie Varner v. Abel Trujillo
This lightweight showdown between fighters struggling to break out of the middle of a division loaded with talent, is without doubt the least significant bout on the main card.
That said, two guys with something to prove invariably leads to fireworks, especially when both have legitimate KO power. Varner has been largely disappointing since finishing Edson Barboza in his UFC return, but if he utilises his wrestling correctly, he should get back to winning ways.
My Prediction: Varner by Split-Decision
Coverage starts on BT Sports at 1am.
By Tom Rooney – @oldmanrooney
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