Fight Picks – Sean Sheehan Vs Alan Murphy

These two men really are polar opposites. Erick Silva has all the natural born talents in the world but in his seven UFC fights to date has yet to attain back-to-back wins. Matt Brown, on the other hand, isn’t the most talented fighter in any department but has won his last six fights in a row against increasingly tougher competition. In the fight on Saturday Brown has the advantage in wrestling and in his undying will to win. Silva is the younger, faster, more athletic fighter with better striking and jiu-jitsu. This fight will be decided in the first two rounds. Silva is a fast starter and if he doesn’t finish inside of ten minutes the likelihood of him winning is diminished greatly. Based on the fact Brown has been out of the cage for nine months through injury I have to give Silva an extra early advantage. Silva has the power to hurt anyone in the division and if he catches Brown it’s all about whether the American can weather the storm or not.

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Sheehan’s Pick: Silva via KO/TKO

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At the end of 2011 Matt Brown was just another fighter who was lucky not to get released from the UFC. Fast forward two and a half years, and a six fight win-streak, and he is on the cusp of a title shot. I think that form and that drive will be the determining factor in this fight. You can tell Matt Brown has that passion and drive (and a some mean punches!). Erick Silva has all the talent in the world. He was been hot and cold in the UFC since arriving, he shows signs of brilliance but then slips up in other fights. Silva’s only hope in this one is some flash brilliance on the feet or some superb grappling. However, I expect a tentative back and forth first round with Brown finding his range later in the round only to come out in the second and KO Silva.

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Murphy’s Pick: Matt Brown def. Erick Silva via KO (punches) in round 2.

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Lorenz Larkin vs. Constantinos Philippou

Since moving away from Serra/Longo Costa Philippou has looked a different fighter – losing badly to Francis Carmont and Luke Rockhold. Larkin can take a lot from both of those fights. Back Philippou up and he is vulnerable; put him on his back and he cant get up. I think Larkin has the ability to do both of those things – especially the latter.

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Sheehan’s Pick: Larkin via decision

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Both fighters haven’t shown the greatest form of late and, in my opinion, are lucky to be in the “co-main” slot. What worries me about their respective dip in form is that Philippou is 34-years-old, as opposed to Larkin’s 27. In other words, this could be spelling out the end for the Cypriot. But I don’t believe that, I think Philippou has more than a solid base of striking to beat Larkin who has had trouble against striking based fighter lately: Carmont, Tavares and King Mo. I think Philippou will pick at Larkin while utilizing his grappling to hold him against the cage and get the takedown for a boring, but technically sound, unanimous decision.

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Murphy’s Pick: Costas Philippou def. Lorenz Larkin via unanimous decision.

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Erik Koch vs. Daron Cruickshank

I love this fight. Koch is a ultra-talented fighter who, on Saturday, will fight at lightweight for the second time in the UFC. His opponent, Daron Cruickshank, is a former TUF contestant with one of the strongest and most varied kick boxing games in MMA. Koch is a very well rounded fighter and should be able to get the better of Cruickshank on the ground as well as competing well on the feet. On paper this one looks like a dominant win for Koch but he has looked a tad chinny of late and I would not at all rule out a Cruickshank KO.

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Sheehan’s Pick: Koch via KO/TKO

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‘Fight of the Night’ and/or ‘Performance of the Night’ could be won in this fight. I expect Koch to continue getting back on track after suffering back to back losses to Ricardo Lamas and Dustin Piorier (no shame in that). I had my reservations about Cruickshank from TUF: Live but he has won me over lately with some exciting finishes but he shouldn’t stand and trade in this fight as I don’t believe his striking is on the same level as that of Koch. My suggestion for Cruickshank is to use his size and wrestling to grind out a win here. However, I think this will be a striking affair with Koch timing his shots better and Cruickshank being too proud to revert to grappling. There could be a flash KO from either side in this one. But I expect Cruickshank to get bloodied up but persevering and lasting the distance.

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Murphy’s Pick: Erik Koch def. Daron Cruickshank via unanimous decision.

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Neil Magny vs. Tim Means

Usually when Tim Means fights at welterweight he has a huge height and reach advantage but against Neil Magny he is inferior in both measurements. After falling out of the UFC Means has impressed with two first round finishes to earn his way back in. Magny, on the other hand, showed some great bouncebackability to defeat Gasan Umalatov in his last fight after two consecutive losses. Magny’s strength is his grinding wrestling whereas Means is a talented striker with a 75% KO/WIN ratio. In his last fifteen fights Means has only lost to Jorge Masvidal and Danny Castillo, Magny isn’t in their class.

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Sheehan’s Pick: Means via KO/TKO

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I am not going to lie, and put some fillers around my prediction here, I don’t know too much about either fighter here. Looking at their records, Magny (9-3) and Means (20-5-1), I would assume the more experienced fighter will get the ‘W’ in this one. Magny is a grappler and Means is a striker with 15 TKO/KO’s…yep I’m going with Means.

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Murphy’s Pick: Tim Means def. Neil Magny via TKO (punches) in round 1.

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Soa Palelei vs. Ruan Potts

Ruan Potts, the former EFC Africa champion, comes to the UFC heavyweight division with a big reputation and draws a tough first assignment against Soa Palelei. South African Potts has heavy hands and a slick submission game but has yet to test it against anyone of note. Palelei is riding a ten fight win streak and is hugely experienced at all levels of the game. This fight all comes down to whether Palelei can get the takedown or not. If he does get it to the floor, the Australian has some of the nastiest ground and pound in the division.

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Sheehan’s Pick: Palelei via KO/TKO

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Really looking forward to seeing these two heavyweights slug it out. Potts will be out of his comfort zone here fighting for the first time outside South Africa and the EFC Africa promotion. On the flip side Palelei is a well travelled veteran and should be well accustomed to fighting all over the world and in different environments. I believe Palelei’s experience and power will be too much for Potts who himself has so much to deal with here such as new country, new promotion, Octagon debut, and the fight week. Add all that together and put a monster in Palelei at the end waiting for him, I don’t give him too much of a chance here. Also Palelei started off in the UFC rather sluggish but seems to be gathering steam and finding his groove. I expect a dominating win for “The Hulk”.

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Murphy’s Pick: Soa Palelei def. Ruan Potts via KO (punch) in round 1.

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Chris Cariaso vs. Louis SmolkaThe undefeated Smolka had an impressive start to his UFC when he defeated the Turkish Delight at the beginning of the year. Cariaso, though, is a huge step up in competition in only his eight career fight. Smolka is a finisher and I wouldn’t be surprised if he rose to the challenge but I’m going with the experience of Cariaso to see him through.

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Sheehan’s Pick: Cariaso via decision

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Think I didn’t know much about Magny and Means…? Well I know nothing about Cariaso and Smolka. Cariaso has a, seemingly, lacklustre 11 decision wins while Smolka looks promising at 7-0 and 4 submission victories, I’ll go with him.

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Murphy’s Pick: Louis Smolka def. Chris Cariaso via submission (rear-naked choke) in round 3.

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Sheehan’s undercard quick picks:

Ed Herman vs. Rafael Natal (winner via decision)
Kyoji Horiguchi (winner via decision) vs. Darrell Montague
Yan Cabral (winner via submission) vs. Zak Cummings
Johnny Eduardo vs. Eddie Wineland (winner via KO)
Manny Gamburyan vs. Nik Lentz (winner via decision)
Justin Salas (winner via decision) vs. Ben Wall
Anthony Lapsley vs. Albert Tumenov (Winner via decision)

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Murphy’s undercard quick picks:

Ed Herman def. Rafael Natal via decision.

Kyoji Horiguchi def. Darrell Montague via KO.

Zak Cummings def. Yan Cabral via decision.

Eddie Wineland def. Johny Eduardo via TKO.

Nik Lentz def. Manny Gamburyan via decision.

Ben Wall def. Justin Salas via submission.

Anthony Lapsley def. Albert Tumenov via decision.