Analysis. Picks. Betting Tip: UFC 209 – Woodley vs. Thompson

In the main event, a rematch for the welterweight title leads the way as messrs Tyron Woodley and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson square off once again following a tight tussle at UFC 205 before the turn of the year.On that occasion the judges correctly scored the fight a draw (despite Bruce Buffer mistakingly reading Woodley out as the winner) with Thompson taking three of the last four rounds and Woodley getting a definite 10-8 in the 4th. We’ll get to that more analytically in a little while.

Coming into the last fight, Ferguson, Missouri native Woodley had a seven year career behind him full of ups and downs. He made his professional debut in 2009 and went on to win ten in a row with names like Paul Daley and Tarec Saffiedine on his list of victims. His first career loss was against Nate Marquardt for the Strikeforce title in 2012 before he jumped over to the 8-sided enclosure.

Woodley quickly took out veterans Josh Koscheck, Kelvin Gastelum and Carlos Condit but losses to Jake Shields and Rory MacDonald were also setbacks on the road to where he is today. That road also saw Woodley sit on the sidelines for 18 months to wait for a title shot but it took mere seconds to finish Robbie Lawler when it finally happened. Since then he has campaigned for big money fights but it’s Wonderboy for a second time despite all of that.

A student of the toughest man in South Carolina, Simpsonville’s Thompson is a champion karateka and kickboxer who made his MMA bow back in 2010 with a lifetime of martial arts experience in his and his father’s back pocket.

Five wins outside of the UFC saw Thompson signed up by the Las Vegas based promotion while a foot-to-head knockout of Dan Stittgen in his debut made him a top prospect. In stepped grizzled veteran Matt Brown at that stage who manhandled a clearly inexperienced Thompson for three rounds and slowed his roll quickly.

In hindsight that turned out to be a the best thing to happen to Thompson who has become an altogether more well rounded and better MMA fighter since. Top class wins over outstanding wrestlers Jake Ellenberger, Rory MacDonald and former UFC welterweight champion Johny Hendricks all followed in his path to the title shot where he also showed his ability despite leaving without the belt.

The reason for that is obviously an anxiousness about Woodley’s power and wrestling but the change in this case in also the antidote. Back Woodley up more, don’t throw any lazy kicks to give him takedown opportunities, land more shots and you’ll give him less of a chance to establish his game. That though is way easier said than done.

When looking at who can implement those changes it’s pretty hard to tell. Both undoubtedly can do it but we have no idea who will. And that’s what makes this one such an interesting fight again.

If your seeking out reasons to pick a winner, I think wrestling, or stopping wrestling, is the biggest factor here. Now both men can get the finish on the feet, but if the fight stays standing you would have to favour Wonderboy. That means takedowns are likely to decide who wins this fight. For me, if Wonderboy makes a slight adjustment so he can whip in and vary his kicks to prevent Woodley from getting a chance to catch them it’s a huge camechanger in this one. So much so that it might just be the reason he wins the fight.

UPDATE: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson has been removed from UFC 209. Nurmagomedov was not medically cleared because of weight management issues.

If the main event is one of the easiest fights to understand from a technical point of view, the co-main event might be one of the most complicated. In that spot, Khabib Nurmagomedov takes on Tony Ferguson for a particularly unnecessary interim version of a lightweight title currently held by Irishman Conor McGregor.

For Dagestan’s Nurmagomedov this will be the first real step up into the very top tier of MMA despite winning all of his twenty four fights. His best win to date arguably came in his 2014 bout with Rafael Dos Anjos (who later win on to win the title)  while his last outing against Michael Johnson showed he is still a force to be reckoned with despite a few injury ravaged years.