The first ever “Sean Sheehan Vs” sees Sean taking on YourMMA.tv‘s Jeevan in a battle of UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Shogun II fight picks.
Each UFC event Sean and his opponent will break down the reasoning behind their main card picks and will give quick picks for the undercard.
We start with the main event. Dan Henderson vs ‘Shogun’ Rua…
Even though Dan Henderson emerged victorious the first time he fought Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in November 2011, it wasn’t by much. 5-round main events weren’t long introduced and that fight, at the time arguably the greatest ever, was proof enough that the alteration was correct. Things, since then, have changed. Henderson missed out on a title shot through injury and lost his next three bouts on the spin. Shogun went 2-2, beating Brandon Vera and James Te-Huna but losing to Chael Sonnen and Alexander Gustafsson.
The big question going into this fight is whether Dan Henderson has anything left in the tank at this stage of his career. The 43 year-old has looked every year of it recently and gives his opponent eleven years on Saturday night. There is no secret to the way this fight will play out. Henderson will leg kick and hurtle his overhand right in his opponent’s direction, probably miss and go for the takedown when he gets tired. Shogun will show off his muay-thai and Freddie Roach-crafted boxing before he, too, gets tired. I see this going five rounds and Shogun appreciating that more, four years on from Henderson taking the fight after clinching the unanimous decision.
Rua’s boxing technique has come on a lot with the help of the aforementioned Freddie Roach and I think it will be his main ally to saving gas and subsequently winning the fight.
Sheehan’s Pick: Shogun via decision.
I would be surprised if this went to a decision. Shogun is the favourite, and I agree with that. That first fight was incredible, but that was 3 years ago. Shogun has been poor, the Te-Huna fight does not mean he is back. Henderson has not looked good in the last 3 years, in my opinion his age has caught up with him.
Henderson will be looking to land that “H-bomb” from the start, you expect him to land some heavy shots in the first two rounds. The predictability will help Rua. Conditioning will be very important, rounds 3-5 will be key for Shogun, I don’t see him finishing the fight in the first two rounds. Henderson will slow down, and this is where you expect Rua to take advantage and use his striking to win rounds/finish the fight.
Jeevan’s Pick: Shogun
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Cezar “Mutante” Ferreira’s fight with C.B. Dollaway as the co-main event should be a real rip roarer. The TUF veterans are different in both style and appearance. Dollaway is tall, gangly wrestler who will stand just long enough to set up the takedown while not being easily finished. Mutante is an athletic machine with hurtful stand up, adequate wrestling and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.
The winning and losing of his fight is all in the Dollaway takedown. If he can get it and secure Ferreira on the floor the fight will be his; but if he cant, he stands little chance. I see Mutante not only stuffing the takedowns but getting some of his own in return (watch out for the wicked guillotine).
Mutante is a future star and should have little trouble here.
Sheehan’s Pick: Mutante via KO
I think Dollaway will get the decision victory. Dolloway should have the advantage with his wrestling background, expect him to go for some takedowns and throwing some GNP. Ferreira is scary, we could see him land some heavy shots and get the (T)KO,
Dollaway’s defence can be suspect, and there are times when he loses his focus. I can see Ferreira capitalising on that (if it happens) and finishing Dollaway. I’m not a fan of Dollaway, he is his own worst enemy. I just think he has enough in his locker to get the victory. His stand-up & wrestling should be adequate for this fight, I just feel this will come down to whether Dollaway can keep his focus and stick to his gameplan.
Jeevan’s Pick: Dollaway
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With both men unbeaten in the not only UFC but their last fifteen combined fights, choosing between TUF champions Norman Parke and Leonardo Santos isn’t easy.
Santos is primarily a submission artist with 2/3 of his wins coming via tap out and is dangerous at all times. Parke is certainly more well rounded and uses his judo base as a means to set up submissions for himself.
On the feet Parke will have much success, being the more technically adept fighter. While on the ground, Parke should be strong enough to secure top position and deter any submission attempts.
Sheehan’s Pick: Parke via decision
You would expect Santos to look for the takedown and then the submission, i’d be surprised if he tries to stand and strike with Parke. It will be interesting to see what kind of success rate he has with his takedown attempts against Parke.
Parke has a very good takedown defence record.
I expect Parke to keep it standing, making sure he is in-and-out with his boxing. I would be shocked to see him go to the ground against someone like Santos, you have to think his coaches know that his advantage in this fight is his striking. Having said that, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Park use his judo towards the end of each round to help him if the bout goes to the judges.
I think Parke will get the decision victory. The fight will be about his stamina, movement & his desire to push the pace of the fight.
Jeevan’s Pick: Parke
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After taking one of the most ferocious beatings in recent memory against Glover Texeira, Fabio Maldonado bounced back well to win his last two. The same can be said for Gian Villante who lost his first UFC fight after transferring from Strikeforce before defeating Cody Donovan in his next. Maldonado is a former professional boxer (who fights like one) with quick, powerful hands while being no slouch on the ground.
Villante, as a training partner of UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman, is a decent wrestler and kick-boxer. This is a real tough one to call, there isn’t much in it. As he showed against Texeira, Maldonado is only one punch away from putting you on queer street at any time and cant be ruled out – but the grinding Villante should be too much for him.
Sheehan’s Pick: Villante via decision.
Maldonado used to be a pro boxer, and we see that in his stand up. He is a volume puncher. The problem is that he leaves himself open, he is very “lucky” that he is so durable. You expect him to move forward and throw punches, he will be happy to eat 3 punches if he can land 5 himself but Maldonado will have to be aware of Villante’s wrestling.
I don’t think it would be smart for Villante to just keep it standing. He needs to make sure he uses his wrestling to control the fight. You have to imagine that Villante’s team have a plan that looks at utilising his wrestling, his camp will know that it isn’t advisable to strike with Maldonado.
That volume punching will help Maldonado with the scoring. I just get the feeling that Villante will be drawn into a slugfest, and that will favour Maldonado over 3 rounds, even if Villante gets a few takedowns.
Jeevan’s Pick: Maldonado
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It says it all that neither Michel Prazeres nor Mairbek Taisumov have a Wikipedia page and their combined three UFC fights have all finished in a decision. This could very well be another one. Both men are strong on the ground and will likely cancel each other out, leading to the old-fashioned kick-boxing match between two grapplers. After that, it’s anyone’s guess.
Sheehan’s Pick: Taisumov via TKO
Prazeres will look for the take down, the first round will be key for his game-plan. He can be very powerful in the first round, getting his opponent down to the mat & then quickly transitioning into a position where he can look for a submission. You have to favour Prazeres if that happens but I think Taisumov will be able to keep it standing.
In the second round, Prazeres’ conditioning will more than likely become an issue and you will see a clear decline in his performance. I think Taisumov will do enough to get a victory, I just don’t think he will finish Prazeres. Taisumov should be able to land enough kicks Prazeres’ legs at ease, which would slow Prazeres down and allow Taisumov to control the stand up. This fight will come down to Taisumov’s ability to keep the fight standing.
Jeevan’s Pick: Taisumov
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Rony Jason vs. Steven Siler is an interesting fight to open up the main card. With similar styles this one could end up anywhere. Both men are wild standing and throw with bad intentions while being strong grapplers who prefer it on the mat. Jason, who is strong off of his back, attacks with regular variety and with Siler’s willingness to wrestle that will probably come into play. This is a pretty even fight which could go either way but Rony Jason is a huge fan favourite in Brazil and the crowd being on his side will surely help.
Sheehan’s Pick: Jason via triangle choke.
My original thinking was that Siler would use his size to control Jason in the clinch and get the take down, get into a dominant position and watch the minutes pass to grind out a decision .
Now, I’ve changed my mind and I just think Jason is the better fighter. I would imagine that he will look to hurt Siler and then follow that up with a submission. I hope Jason has recognised his flaws, he needs to be smart and pick the right moments to go rushing in. He should be hungry for a victory, he won’t be happy with his (brief) showing in the fight against Stephens.
Jason reminds me of those football wingers who have the pace to beat a defender but make awful decisions in final third. I believe he has the tools to have a successful career however some of his decision making in fights may cost him.
I don’t know if that’s down to him, it might be the game-plan has coaches have come up with. I just find it to be frustrating to watch. I hope he realises that he should be looking for the takedown and getting into a position where he can lock in a submission. That is his strength, he should focus on implementing it.
Jeevan’s Pick: Jason
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Sheehan’s undercard quick picks:
Diego Brandao to defeat Will Chope
Ronny Markes to defeat Thiago “Marreta” Santos
Jussier Formiga to defeat Scott Jorgensen
Thiago Perpetuo to defeat Kenny Robertson
Noad Lahat to defeat Godofredo Pepey
Hans Stringer to defeat Francimar Barroso
Jeevan’s undercard quick picks:
Diego Brandao to defeat Will Chope
Ronny Markes to defeat Thiago “Marreta” Santos
Jussier Formiga to defeat Scott Jorgensen
Kenny Robertson to defeat Thiago Perpetuo
Noad Lahat to defeat Godofredo Pepey
Francimar Barroso to defeat Hans Stringer
Rules: Every correct pick made is equal to 1 point. Any method of victory included with the pick doesn’t count towards the competition and is just for fun.
And for the Sean Sheehan bet of the week…
I’m totally cheating and giving three. Firstly, I like Cesar Mutante straight up to beat Dolloway at 1/2.
Then, as a fairly small money treble, I think there is value in parlaying Shogun, Mutante and Brandao which would double your money.
For the last one, what I always like to do for every event is pick a wild, but educated, accumulator that isn’t worth betting more than maybe €5 but has the possibility of happening. On Saturday, my choice is Shogun via decision, Mutante to win, Formiga to win and Lahat to win. That comes in at a cool 18/1 and will turn your fiver into almost €100.
But please, bet wisely; because anything can happen in MMA.
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